Nairobi’s Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) became the unexpected stage for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and their allies as they gathered to announce a parallel government. However, the highly anticipated declaration was postponed to February 21 to allow for further consultations. This unexpected delay raised speculation about internal divisions within the RSF and its broader strategy in Sudan’s ongoing civil conflict.
The event quickly drew backlash from Sudan’s Khartoum-based government, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Officials condemned Kenya for allowing the meeting, accusing it of siding with what they called a “terrorist militia.” Sudan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned that Kenya’s actions could strain diplomatic relations between the two nations.
Tensions between Sudan and Kenya have been building for months. Sudanese officials previously accused Kenya of bias in regional mediation efforts, particularly through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The RSF’s gathering at the KICC escalated these tensions, with Sudan warning of possible diplomatic fallout.
The RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), has played a central role in Sudan’s conflict, fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for control. Choosing Nairobi’s KICC—a symbol of post-colonial African identity—to unveil their political charter for a “Government of Peace and Unity” was a strategic move. It signaled their push for legitimacy and international recognition. It also highlighted how non-state actors leverage geopolitics to further their agendas.
Kenya’s decision to host the RSF at the KICC raised questions about its shifting foreign policy. Traditionally seen as neutral, Kenya under President William Ruto has taken a more assertive stance. This shift was evident when Kenya hosted Congolese rebels, straining relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The RSF’s event at KICC further underscores Kenya’s balancing act between peacekeeping and national interests.
While Kenya aims to position itself as a regional leader, its recent actions have drawn criticism. For instance, Kenya’s candidate, Raila Odinga, lost the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship to Djibouti’s candidate. Some believe Kenya’s controversial regional engagements played a role in this setback.
The RSF’s plans for a parallel government have far-reaching consequences for Sudan and the region. Sudan has been in crisis since April 2023, when conflict erupted between the RSF and SAF. The creation of a rival government could deepen instability, leading to a prolonged Libya-style conflict. Both factions will likely seek international backing, complicating diplomatic efforts.
The African Union now faces a tough decision on how to respond. Sudan has been suspended from the AU since the 2021 coup. A parallel government further complicates efforts to restore stability. The AU must tread carefully to avoid alienating member states or appearing to support Sudan’s fragmentation. Raila Odinga’s failure to secure the AUC chairmanship may also reflect tensions within the AU regarding Kenya’s foreign policy. This could push Kenya to rethink its diplomatic strategies, focusing on rebuilding alliances and strengthening regional ties.
Nairobi’s KICC hosting Sudan’s RSF marks a turning point in African geopolitics. It highlights the complex interplay of power, diplomacy, and national interests. As Kenya navigates this geopolitical chessboard, its choices will shape not just its role in the region but also the future of Sudan, the East African Community, and the African Union. The world watches closely.
